■

こう振り返ってみると前回は世論調査がめっちゃ正確だったな

2016年に空振りしたから改善されたんだろう

2024年も世論調査正確だとするとやっぱ接戦だな

2020年大統領選挙 (2020/11/03)

結果

バイデン306

トランプ232

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2020/

10/31-10/2 YouGov 🟦 +10

10/31-10/2 YouGov 🟦 +9

10/31-10/2 HarrisX 🟦 +5

10/31-10/2 HarrisX 🟦 +4

10/20-10/2 University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research 🟦 +8

10/1 John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions 🟦 +2

10/30-10/1 YouGov 🟦 +9

10/30-10/1 YouGov 🟦 +9

10/29-31 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

10/29-31 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟦 +5

10/26-29 Opinium 🟦 +8

10/26-28 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

10/25-28 HarrisX 🟦 +5

10/25-28 HarrisX 🟦 +5

10/25-27 YouGov 🟦 +10

10/25-27 YouGov 🟦 +10

10/23-27 Suffolk University 🟦 +10

10/23-26 The Winston Group 🟦 +4

10/23-26 CNN/SSRS 🟦 +12

10/23-26 CNN/SSRS 🟦 +12

10/19-26 YouGov 🟦 +9

10/16-26 YouGov 🟦 +11

10/23-25 YouGov 🟦 +13

10/23-25 YouGov 🟦 +13

10/23-25 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

10/20-22 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

10/20 Rethink Priorities 🟦 +5

10/18-20 YouGov 🟦 +7

10/18-20 YouGov 🟦 +7

10/16-20 Echelon Insights 🟦 +4

10/17-19 Morning Consult 🟦 +8

10/15-19 Navigator Research 🟦 +8

10/15-19 GBAO 🟦 +12

10/6-19 University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research 🟦 +8

10/16-18 YouGov 🟦 +11

10/16-18 YouGov 🟦 +11

10/14-16 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

10/11-13 YouGov 🟦 +8

10/11-13 YouGov 🟦 +6

10/11-13 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

10/9-12 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟦 +8

10/8-12 Opinium 🟦 +11

10/9-11 YouGov 🟦 +7

10/9-11 YouGov 🟦 +7

10/8-10 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

10/5-7 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

9/30-10/5 Pew Research Center 🟦 +6

9/22-10/5 University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research 🟦 +8

10/2-4 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

10/2-3 YouGov 🟦 +12

10/2-3 YouGov 🟦 +12

10/2 John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions 🟦 +3

10/1-2 YouGov 🟦 +8

10/1-2 YouGov 🟦 +4

9/30-10/1 Data for Progress 🟦 +9

9/29-10/1 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

9/27-30 YouGov 🟦 +6

9/27-30 YouGov 🟦 +7

9/26-30 The Winston Group 🟦 +4

9/26-28 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

9/24-27 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟦 +6

9/24-27 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟦 +7

9/23-27 McLaughlin & Associates 🟦 +2

9/23-25 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

9/19-25 Echelon Insights 🟦 +5

9/21-23 YouGov 🟦 +9

9/21-23 YouGov 🟦 +8

9/20-22 YouGov 🟦 +4

9/20-22 YouGov 🟦 +7

9/20-22 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

9/14-22 YouGov 🟦 +11

9/8-21 University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research 🟦 +6

9/18-20 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

9/17-19 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

9/15-17 YouGov 🟦 +7

9/14-16 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

9/13-16 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟦 +7

9/12-16 GBAO 🟦 +9

9/13-15 YouGov 🟦 +7

9/13-15 YouGov 🟦 +7

9/11-13 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

9/10-12 RMG Research 🟦 +5

9/9-11 YouGov 🟦 +11

9/8-10 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

9/4-10 Opinium 🟦 +8

9/8-9 Climate Nexus 🟦 +10

9/6-8 YouGov 🟦 +7

9/6-8 YouGov 🟦 +7

9/3-8 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟦 +4

9/3-8 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟦 +6

9/5-7 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

9/3-7 Hart Research Associates 🟦 +8

8/25-9/7 University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research 🟦 +7

9/2-4 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

8/30-9/1 YouGov 🟦 +13

8/30-9/1 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

8/28-31 Suffolk University 🟦 +5

8/26-30 Selzer & Co. 🟦 +7

8/27-29 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

8/27-28 YouGov 🟦 +11

8/24-26 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

8/22-26 McLaughlin & Associates 🟦 +1

8/21-26 Opinium 🟦 +13

8/23-25 YouGov 🟦 +8

8/11-24 University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research 🟦 +8

8/21-23 YouGov 🟦 +11

8/21-23 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

8/18-20 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

8/16-18 YouGov 🟦 +11

8/14-18 Echelon Insights 🟦 +9

8/15-17 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

8/14-15 YouGov 🟦 +11

8/13-14 Data for Progress 🟦 +7

8/12-14 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

8/9-12 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟦 +5

8/9-11 YouGov 🟦 +10

8/9-11 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

8/3-11 Marist College 🟦 +6

8/4-10 Morning Consult 🟦 +10

8/6-8 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

8/1-6 Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group 🟦 +7

8/3-5 Morning Consult 🟦 +8

8/2-4 YouGov 🟦 +12

7/31-8/2 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

7/29-30 Emerson College 🟦 +6

7/28-30 YouGov 🟦 +10

7/28-30 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

7/27-28 Ipsos 🟦 +8

7/27-28 Ipsos 🟦 +8

7/26-28 YouGov 🟦 +8

7/24-28 Øptimus 🟦 +7

7/24-28 Øptimus 🟦 +9

7/25-27 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

7/23-27 Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research 🟦 +6

7/22-24 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

7/17-22 Echelon Insights 🟦 +14

7/19-21 YouGov 🟦 +7

7/19-21 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

7/17-19 Morning Consult 🟦 +10

7/15-19 GQR 🟦 +7

7/16-18 The Winston Group 🟦 +6

7/16-18 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

7/15-18 BSG/GS Strategy Group 🟦 +9

7/13-15 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

7/12-14 YouGov 🟦 +8

7/11-14 YouGov 🟦 +10

7/10-12 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

7/9-12 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟦 +4

7/7-9 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

7/5-7 YouGov 🟦 +11

7/4-6 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

7/1-3 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

6/23-7/1 Global Strategy Group/Data for Progress 🟦 +10

6/28-30 YouGov 🟦 +9

6/28-30 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

6/26-30 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟦 +8

6/25-29 Suffolk University 🟦 +13

6/22-28 Hart Research Associates 🟦 +9

6/25-27 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

6/23-27 Øptimus 🟦 +4

6/23-27 Øptimus 🟦 +7

6/22-24 Morning Consult 🟦 +8

6/19-24 Opinium 🟦 +11

6/21-23 YouGov 🟦 +7

6/19-21 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

6/19-20 Public Policy Polling 🟦 +11

6/16-18 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

6/14-16 YouGov 🟦 +9

6/11-16 McLaughlin & Associates 🟦 +1

6/9-16 Øptimus 🟦 +7

6/9-16 Øptimus 🟦 +6

6/13-15 The Winston Group 🟦 +3

6/13-15 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

6/10-12 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

6/6-11 Climate Nexus 🟦 +6

5/28-6/10 Democracy Fund/UCLA Nationscape 🟦 +10

6/7-9 YouGov 🟦 +8

6/7-9 Morning Consult 🟦 +8

6/7 MSR Group 🟦 +4

6/4-6 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

5/30-6/6 Øptimus 🟦 +10

5/30-6/6 Øptimus 🟦 +9

6/1-3 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

5/31-6/2 YouGov 🟦 +6

5/28-6/2 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟦 +11

5/28-6/1 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟦 +9

5/29-31 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

5/26-28 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

5/23-26 YouGov 🟦 +8

5/21-26 McLaughlin & Associates 🟦 +1

5/19-26 Øptimus 🟦 +8

5/19-26 Øptimus 🟦 +8

5/23-25 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

5/21-24 The Winston Group 🟦 +7

5/20-22 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

5/17-19 YouGov 🟦 +9

5/17-19 Morning Consult 🟦 +5

5/14-16 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

5/9-16 Øptimus 🟦 +9

5/9-16 Øptimus 🟦 +9

5/11-13 Morning Consult 🟦 +4

5/10-12 YouGov 🟦 +7

5/8-10 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

5/5-7 Morning Consult 🟦 +6

5/3-5 YouGov 🟦 +8

4/28-5/5 Øptimus 🟦 +9

4/28-5/5 Øptimus 🟦 +8

5/2-4 Morning Consult 🟦 +7

4/30-5/4 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟦 +10

2024年大統領選挙 (2020/11/05)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2024/

7/19-22 YouGov 🟦 +3

7/19-21 HarrisX 🟥 +8

7/19-21 HarrisX 🟥 +5

7/19-21 Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research 🟥 +1

7/19-21 Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research 🟦 +1

7/19-21 Echelon Insights 🟦 +1

7/15-16 Emerson College Even

7/13-16 YouGov 🟦 +1

7/13-15 HarrisX 🟥 +1

7/8-11 Noble Predictive Insights 🟥 +1

7/8-11 Noble Predictive Insights 🟥 +1

7/9-10 Marist College 🟦 +2

7/7-9 YouGov 🟦 +2

7/7-9 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟦 +1

7/7-8 Emerson College 🟦 +1

7/1-3 Split Ticket/Data for Progress 🟦 +3

7/1-2 Cygnal 🟥 +4

6/30-7/2 YouGov Even

6/29-7/2 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO 🟥 +3

6/30-7/1 NewsNation Even

6/29-7/1 OnMessage 🟥 +1

6/29-30 Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research 🟦 +3

6/29-30 Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research 🟦 +2

6/28-30 Suffolk University 🟥 +3

6/28-30 CNN/SSRS 🟥 +2

6/23-25 YouGov 🟦 +1

6/20-24 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +4

6/20-24 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +2

6/18-24 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +3

6/11-24 YouGov 🟦 +5

6/13-20 Clarity Campaign Labs 🟦 +1

6/16-18 YouGov 🟦 +1

6/14-18 YouGov Blue 🟦 +2

6/11-13 OnMessage 🟥 +6

6/10-12 Echelon Insights 🟦 +1

6/9-11 YouGov Even

6/6-10 Monmouth University Polling Institute 🟥 +3

6/7-9 Big Village 🟦 +2

6/7-9 Big Village 🟦 +1

6/7-9 Big Village 🟦 +2

6/4-6 Cygnal Even

6/3-6 YouGov 🟦 +2

6/4-5 Emerson College 🟥 +2

6/2-4 YouGov 🟦 +1

5/23-6/3 Navigator Research 🟦 +7

5/28-30 OnMessage 🟥 +5

5/28-29 NewsNation 🟥 +2

5/25-28 YouGov 🟦 +2

5/21-23 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +4

5/21-23 Marist College Even

5/21-23 Emerson College 🟥 +1

5/19-21 YouGov 🟦 +4

5/16-21 The Bullfinch Group Even

5/16-21 The Bullfinch Group 🟥 +1

5/14-16 OnMessage 🟥 +7

5/14-16 Cygnal 🟥 +2

5/13-16 Echelon Insights 🟥 +4

5/9-15 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +2

5/6-15 Marquette University Law School Even

5/6-15 Marquette University Law School Even

5/12-14 YouGov 🟦 +3

5/10-14 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +3

5/10-14 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +2

5/10-13 YouGov 🟦 +4

5/6-9 RMG Research 🟦 +1

4/29-5/8 Clarity Campaign Labs 🟦 +1

5/5-7 YouGov 🟦 +2

4/19-5/4 Data for Progress Even

4/28-30 YouGov 🟦 +3

4/27-29 The Winston Group 🟥 +1

4/26-28 Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research 🟦 +3

4/26-28 Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research 🟦 +3

4/21-23 YouGov 🟦 +2

4/16-17 NewsNation 🟥 +2

4/16-17 Emerson College Even

4/14-16 YouGov Even

4/12-16 Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies 🟥 +1

4/10-16 McLaughlin & Associates 🟥 +4

4/11-15 YouGov 🟦 +3

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 19:41

ツイートシェア