2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 2)

My October Predictions:

Picture:

1. Anora – Neon
2. Emilia Perez – Netflix
3. The Brutalist – A24
4. Sing Sing – A24
5. Blitz – Apple
6. Dune Part 2 – WB
7. Conclave – Focus
8. A Real Pain – Searchlight
9. Nickel Boys – Amazon / MGM
10. A Complete Unknown – Searchlight

Director:

1. Sean Baker – Anora
2. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
3. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez
4. Steve McQueen – Blitz
5. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys

6. Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
7. Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part 2
8. Edward Berger – Conclave
9. Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing
10. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

I feel like Anora & Emilia Perez will have the most broad appeal out of this year’s non-blockbusters. EP could be a flat out mainstream streaming hit which is why I have it over The Brutalist. Blitz is going to be HUGE with the Brits and the techs even if it’s not sweeping critics prizes.

I have A Complete Unknown as my 10th spot because a) its Searchlight, b) its going to do well at the box office and c) its pure boomer bait which is good for a late-breaker.

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Jesus Alonso wrote:

My thoughts

1. A Real Pain (=)
2. The Brutalist (=)
3. Emilia Pérez (=)
4. Anora (=)
5. Conclave (+4)
6. Nickel Boys (+4)
7. The Room Next Door (-2)
8. The Piano Lesson (-2)
9. The Life of Chuck (NEW)
10. Hard Truths (REENTERS)

Just missing: Blitz & Sing Sing. Dune, Part II, next one. Director: 1. Corbet, The Brutalist 2. Audiard, Emilia Pérez 3. Baker, Anora 4. Almodóvar, The Room Next Door 5. Eisenberg, A Real Pain NOTE: Almodóvar, McQueen and Villeneuve are the only ones in realistic competition, that are previous nominees, so I am inclined that whoever gets nominated, out of the 3, will be taking home the award. Reminder: both Almodóvar and McQueen, winning, would make history. So far, I’d say Almodóvar, being the first openly gay director to win at Directing, since Schlesinger for Midnight Cowboy, and being one of the international masters of cinema, finally recognised. There is the precedent of Bertolucci, who was already considered a master, and went on to win (and sweep) with The Last Emperor.

Almodovar is not getting in be realistic even with your three paragraph long copy paste statistic of the golden lion The Room Next Door is simply not a strong contender at all every nomination it has the chance to get will only happen if just slips into screenplay, picture and actress which after that it stops having any chance at all. Also The Room Next Door is NOT The Last Emperor in any way. Maybe in acting it helps slightly but in director and picture to win and mostly to be nominated an overdue narrative doesn’t work with a weak film

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Jesus Alonso wrote:

My thoughts

1. A Real Pain (=)
2. The Brutalist (=)
3. Emilia Pérez (=)
4. Anora (=)
5. Conclave (+4)
6. Nickel Boys (+4)
7. The Room Next Door (-2)
8. The Piano Lesson (-2)
9. The Life of Chuck (NEW)
10. Hard Truths (REENTERS)

Just missing: Blitz & Sing Sing. Dune, Part II, next one. Director: 1. Corbet, The Brutalist 2. Audiard, Emilia Pérez 3. Baker, Anora 4. Almodóvar, The Room Next Door 5. Eisenberg, A Real Pain NOTE: Almodóvar, McQueen and Villeneuve are the only ones in realistic competition, that are previous nominees, so I am inclined that whoever gets nominated, out of the 3, will be taking home the award. Reminder: both Almodóvar and McQueen, winning, would make history. So far, I’d say Almodóvar, being the first openly gay director to win at Directing, since Schlesinger for Midnight Cowboy, and being one of the international masters of cinema, finally recognised. There is the precedent of Bertolucci, who was already considered a master, and went on to win (and sweep) with The Last Emperor.

Eisenberg in Best Director feels like a stretch. I don’t think is happening. At least for now I can’t see it.

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What I am feeling critics circles will put into consideration…

Picture: The Brutalist, Anora

Director: Corbet, Baker

Actor: Brody, The Brutalist; Stan The Apprentice AND A Different Man

Actress: Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Swinton AND Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

S. Actor: Strong, The Apprentice; Culkin, A Real Pain

S. Actress: Saldaña AND Gómez, Emilia Pérez

OnlySnubsInTheBuilding wrote:

Almodovar is not getting in be realistic even with your three paragraph long copy paste statistic of the golden lion The Room Next Door is simply not a strong contender at all every nomination it has the chance to get will only happen if just slips into screenplay, picture and actress which after that it stops having any chance at all. Also The Room Next Door is NOT The Last Emperor in any way. Maybe in acting it helps slightly but in director and picture to win and mostly to be nominated an overdue narrative doesn’t work with a weak film

The Room Next Door doesn’t need to be The Last Emperor, but people is forgetting plenty of facts.

1) Reviews aren’t that reliable, as most complaints are literally, how Almodóvar writes his dialogue in English… well, basically, as Tilda and Julianne point out, it’s his poetic way of writing, as it always has been… everything else, it’s pure autor’s praise about his reflection on life and death.

2) Swinton is raved. She’s the basis to build the film’s campaign. If Julianne is displaced to Supporting, she’s beyond locked for a nom at lead.

3) AMPAS isn’t the critics. Despite the language barrier, AMPAS nominated 3 times a lead performance in an Almodóvar film. Given how difficult that fact is, we already know the eyes of AMPAS are definitely on TRND already.

4) We have to consider categories bit by bit. Alberto Iglesias was already nominated for Score, for Parallel Mothers (he’s a strong contender). We know from the trailer, that cinematography is sumptuous and top-notch. That’s 2 possibilities already. Acting gets 1-3 more (Turturro is overdue and said to have a key scene), we’re on the 3-5 nominations already. Then you have the Adapted Screenplay, which is also in strong contention, given he already won for Original. 4-6. If Director comes along, 5-7, and then Picture makes it 6-8, not counting a possible surprise in Film Editing or Production Design – for its minimalistic sets.

5) It’s also the kind of prestige nomination that AMPAS likes to have, from The Tree of Life to Triangle of Sadness…

so… I have it as a strong contender. Seeing it, this Monday, will know more then.

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Almodovar only won Venice cause Huppert took pity on his dismal festival history.

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Filmnite wrote:

Anora is giving me Promising Young Woman, Anatomy of a Fall etc vibes. Nominated for 5 Oscars (Picture, Actress, Director, OScreenplay and Editing), winning OScreenplay.

It’s being underestimated in Cinematography as well I think. It could also be more like Nomadland with the exact same 6 noms (except for Original instead of Adapted Screenplay) and possibly even the same 3 wins if it stays the course as a frontrunner but a more ‘writerly’ film wins OS. Sean Baker would also match Chloé Zhao’s achievement of being nominated across four disciplines.

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