2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary
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50 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Alabama |
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 Government |
The 2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary took place on March 1, 2016. This was the fifth primary held in the 2016 Republican primary. Donald Trump won the primary handily. The election was also held on Super Tuesday. Trump eventually won the Republican primary. He was elected President of the United States on November 8, 2016, against Hillary Clinton.
Ahead of the primary, Alabama was considered one of Donald Trump's strongest states.[1] Trump enjoyed the endorsement of Senator Jeff Sessions,[2] who would later join his Department of Justice as Attorney General. Sessions was Trump's first endorsement in the U.S. Senate.
Candidates
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Donald Trump
- U.S. Senators
- Jeff Sessions, U.S. Senator[3]
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll
aggregation |
Dates
administered |
Dates
updated |
Marco Rubio Republican |
Donald Trump Republican |
Ted Cruz Republican |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[4] | until March 1, 2016 | March 1, 2016 | 20.3% | 38.0% | 14.7% | Trump +17.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight[5] | until March 1, 2016 | March 1, 2016 | 20.4% | 43.4% | 17.2% | Trump +23.0 |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results[6] | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump43.42% | Ted Cruz21.09% | Marco Rubio18.66% | Ben Carson 10.24%, John Kasich 4.43%, Jeb Bush 0.46%, Mike Huckabee 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.22%, Chris Christie 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Carly Fiorina 0.06%, Lindsey Graham 0.03% |
| SurveyMonkey[7]
Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 741 |
February 22–29, 2016 | Donald Trump 47% |
Ted Cruz
18% |
Marco Rubio
14% |
Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 3%, Undecided 9% |
| Monmouth University[8]
Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 450 |
February 25–28, 2016 | Donald Trump 42% |
Marco Rubio
19% |
Ted Cruz
16% |
Ben Carson 11%, John Kasich 5%, Undecided 7% |
| Opinion Savvy[9]
Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 460 |
February 25–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 35.8% |
Marco Rubio
23.0% |
Ted Cruz
16.2% |
Ben Carson 10.5%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 7.0% |
| AL.com[10]
Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500 |
December 10–13, 2015 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ted Cruz
15% |
Marco Rubio
12% |
Ben Carson 12%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Chris Christie 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul <1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Lindsey Graham <1% |
| Gravis Marketing[11]
Margin of error: ± 2% Sample size: 1616 |
September 3, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% |
Ben Carson
16.7% |
Jeb Bush
4.9% |
Ted Cruz 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.7%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 2.3%, Rand Paul 1.5%, John Kasich 1.3%, Scott Walker 1.1%, Chris Christie 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Rick Perry 0.3%, Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, unsure 23.2% |
| News-5/Strategy Research[12]
Margin of error: ± 2% Sample size: 3500 |
August 11, 2015 | Donald Trump 30% |
Jeb Bush
15% |
Ben Carson
11% |
Marco Rubio 11%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Ted Cruz 7.5%, Scott Walker 3%, Other 5% |
| Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage[13]
Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 481 |
August 2–3, 2015 | Donald Trump 37.6% |
Ben Carson
14.6% |
Jeb Bush
11.8% |
Mike Huckabee 7.9%, Ted Cruz 4.5%, Scott Walker 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.2%, Bobby Jindal 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.2%, Rick Perry 1.0%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Carly Fiorina 0.5%, George Pataki 0.0%, Someone else 1.9%, Undecided 3.1% |
| Cygnal[14]
Margin of error: ± 3.42% Sample size: 821 |
July 7–8, 2014 | Jeb Bush 19.8% |
Ben Carson
12.6% |
Rand Paul
10.5% |
Chris Christie 8.8%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Ted Cruz 5.6%, Rick Santorum 5.3%, Bobby Jindal 3.9%, Scott Walker 3.6%, Undecided 22.6% |
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 373,721 | 43.42% | 36 | 0 | 36 |
| Ted Cruz | 181,479 | 21.09% | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| Marco Rubio | 160,606 | 18.66% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Carson | 88,094 | 10.24% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 38,119 | 4.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 7,953 | 0.92% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 3,974 | 0.46% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 2,539 | 0.30% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 1,895 | 0.22% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 858 | 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 617 | 0.07% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 544 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) | 253 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 860,652 | 100.00% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Results by county
[edit]| County | Trump | Cruz | Rubio | Carson | Kasich | Uncommitted | Bush | Huckabee | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autauga | 44.57% | 20.48% | 14.75% | 14.57% | 3.48% | 1.01% | 0.47% | 0.26% | 0.40% |
| Baldwin | 46.87% | 17.02% | 19.26% | 8.39% | 5.93% | 1.38% | 0.45% | N/A | 0.70% |
| Barbour | 50.16% | 17.77% | 14.62% | 12.26% | 3.6% | 0.61% | 0.3% | 0.26% | 0.41% |
| Bibb | 49.46% | 25.45% | 11.18% | 9.89% | 2.11% | 0.76% | 0.43% | 0.38% | 0.35% |
| Blount | 48.75% | 24.39% | 12.15% | 10.05% | 2.22% | 1.12% | 0.37% | 0.51% | 0.42% |
| Bullock | 56.50% | 16.97% | 11.55% | 8.48% | 4.15% | 0.54% | 1.26% | 0.18% | 0.36% |
| Butler | 53.78% | 16.68% | 13.37% | 11.77% | 2.69% | 0.53% | 0.66% | N/A | 0.53% |
| Calhoun | 45.06% | 19.43% | 16.32% | 11.83% | 4.78% | 1.04% | 0.64% | 0.36% | 0.53% |
| Chambers | 47.52% | 20.11% | 13.04% | 13.07% | 3.68% | 0.96% | 0.79% | 0.26% | 0.57% |
| Cherokee | 52.10% | 17.23% | 15.19% | 10.01% | 2.83% | 1.29% | 0.37% | 0.54% | 0.43% |
| Chilton | 49.43% | 21.78% | 13.44% | 10.75% | 2.04% | 1.10% | 0.59% | 0.48% | 0.38% |
| Choctaw | 49.93% | 21.05% | 14.70% | 7.89% | 3.17% | 1.26% | 0.93% | 0.51% | 0.56% |
| Clarke | 50.22% | 19.28% | 17.48% | 8.92% | 2.71% | 0.41% | 0.33% | 0.39% | 0.26% |
| Clay | 47.48% | 20.89% | 12.49% | 12.25% | 3.09% | 1.60% | 1.06% | 0.52% | 0.62% |
| Cleburne | 48.30% | 21.13% | 13.62% | 9.95% | 2.41% | 1.64% | 1.55% | 0.57% | 0.82% |
| Coffee | 41.40% | 23.37% | 15.52% | 13.16% | 3.4% | 1.32% | 0.66% | 0.38% | 0.64% |
| Colbert | 47.45% | 19.62% | 17.68% | 10.89% | 3.05% | 0.54% | N/A | N/A | 0.77% |
| Conecuh | 59.02% | 15.96% | 10.82% | 10.51% | 1.30% | 0.84% | 0.61% | 0.46% | 0.46% |
| Coosa | 55.32% | 19.56% | 10.81% | 9.02% | 2.96% | 0.99% | 0.45% | 0.27% | 0.63% |
| Covington | 48.14% | 18.51% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 3.37% | 1.56% | 0.81% | 0.43% | 0.51% |
| Crenshaw | 54.50% | 21.93% | 9.11% | 10.42% | 2.55% | 0.51% | 0.44% | N/A | 0.55% |
| Cullman | 50.65% | 20.25% | 13.49% | 10.96% | 2.66% | 0.80 | 0.37% | 0.31% | 0.51% |
| Dale | 45.28% | 21.90% | 13.02% | 12.54% | 3.63% | 1.76% | 0.61% | 0.61% | 0.66% |
| Dallas | 59.70% | 20.66% | 8.68% | 5.25% | 2.63% | 1.48% | 0.91% | 0.57% | 0.11% |
| DeKalb | 47.59% | 16.39% | 21.60% | 9.79% | 2.47% | 1.01% | 0.39% | 0.39% | 0.37% |
| Elmore | 47.49% | 18.35% | 13.43% | 14.90% | 3.58% | 0.91% | 0.54% | 0.29% | 0.51% |
| Escambia | 49.33% | 18.00% | 17.14% | 10.24% | 3.40% | 0.56% | 0.49% | 0.37% | 0.47% |
| Etowah | 46.09% | 20.75% | 16.79% | 11.19% | 3.27% | 0.74% | 0.41% | 0.28% | 0.49% |
| Fayette | 49.86% | 20.97% | 13.35% | 9.81% | 2.49% | 1.77% | 0.50% | 0.88% | 0.36% |
| Franklin | 51.47% | 21.29% | 13.42% | 9.26% | 2.55% | 0.72% | 0.33% | 0.48% | 0.48% |
| Geneva | 48.62% | 23.73% | 12.99% | 9.26% | 2.30% | 1.31% | 0.66% | 0.55% | 0.59% |
| Greene | 53.85% | 21.61% | 12.09% | 6.96% | 3.66% | N/A | 0.73% | 0.37% | 0.74% |
| Hale | 52.07% | 24.98% | 11.74% | 7.77% | 2.12% | 0.53% | N/A | 0.26% | 0.53% |
| Henry | 46.79% | 22.28% | 14.36% | 11.47% | 2.81% | 1.05% | 0.55% | 0.29% | 0.39% |
| Houston | 40.39% | 22.56% | 18.19% | 11.43% | 4.13% | 1.66% | 0.68% | 0.44% | 0.53% |
| Jackson | 49.89% | 16.37% | 16.90% | 10.82% | 2.83% | 2.00% | 0.37% | 0.44% | 0.40% |
| Jefferson | 35.02% | 23.82% | 24.67% | 8.92% | 6.09% | 0.55% | 0.36% | N/A | 0.58% |
| Lamar | 50.43% | 19.26% | 12.97% | 9.57% | 2.87% | 2.25% | 0.78% | 1.03% | 0.83% |
| Lauderdale | 42.14% | 18.36% | 18.69% | 12.05% | 5.52% | 1.66% | 0.36% | 0.53% | 0.69% |
| Lawrence | 52.89% | 17.53% | 13.53% | 10.74% | 2.87% | 0.93% | 0.55% | 0.41% | 0.55% |
| Lee | 32.96% | 23.17% | 22.50% | 11.72% | 7.11% | 0.98% | 0.61% | 0.35% | 0.59% |
| Limestone | 43.03% | 21.39% | 18.85% | 10.87% | 3.90% | 0.89% | 0.37% | N/A | 0.70% |
| Lowndes | 59.52% | 16.31% | 9.88% | 10.48% | 3.10% | 0.36% | N/A | N/A | 0.36% |
| Macon | 47.91% | 19.78% | 12.38% | 12.79% | 5.25% | 0.67% | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.13% |
| Madison | 36.18% | 20.69% | 26.03% | 9.58% | 5.94% | 0.59% | 0.31% | N/A | 0.69% |
| Marengo | 53.95% | 21.17% | 11.79% | 7.89% | 2.41% | 1.21% | 0.93% | 0.28% | 0.37% |
| Marion | 52.92% | 19.15% | 13.91% | 8.89% | 2.52% | 0.77% | 0.56% | 0.60% | 0.68% |
| Marshall | 49.51% | 15.12% | 20.56% | 9.86% | 3.23% | 0.69% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 0.44% |
| Mobile | 45.22% | 21.41% | 18.93% | 7.71% | 4.59% | 0.93% | 0.49% | N/A | 0.73% |
| Monroe | 52.06% | 17.42% | 15.78% | 9.87% | 2.86% | 0.50% | 0.53% | 0.53% | 0.45% |
| Montgomery | 39.42% | 17.59% | 20.85% | 12.65% | 7.30% | 0.83% | 0.64% | N/A | 0.73% |
| Morgan | 44.59% | 19.73% | 18.31% | 11.40% | 4.53% | 0.50% | 0.25% | 0.27% | 0.42% |
| Perry | 51.73% | 32.80% | 8.80% | 4.00% | 0.53% | 1.33% | 0.53% | 0.27% | N/A |
| Pickens | 44.0.5% | 25.74% | 13.81% | 11.31% | 2.54% | 0.63% | 0.70% | 0.98% | 0.23% |
| Pike | 46.02% | 20.15% | 14.79% | 12.81% | 3.16% | 1.23% | 0.79% | 0.40% | 0.66% |
| Randolph | 51.59% | 20.65% | 12.83% | 9.36% | 2.92% | 0.94% | 0.77% | 0.55% | 0.39% |
| Russell | 47.45% | 27.03% | 12.31% | 7.92% | 2.82% | 1.04% | 0.53% | N/A | 0.90% |
| St. Clair | 44.60% | 26.88% | 13.42% | 10.86% | 2.69% | 0.53% | 0.41% | N/A | 0.61% |
| Shelby | 34.35% | 26.37% | 22.95% | 9.42% | 5.03% | 0.83% | 0.37% | N/A | 0.67% |
| Sumter | 59.36% | 15.90% | 13.78% | 7.42% | 1.41% | 0.35% | 1.41% | 0.35% | N/A |
| Talladega | 51.05% | 19.98% | 13.56% | 9.54% | 3.80% | 0.71% | 0.59% | 0.35% | 0.40% |
| Tallapoosa | 52.78% | 15.01% | 14.60% | 11.40% | 4.20% | 0.53% | 0.62% | 0.27% | 0.58% |
| Tuscaloosa | 37.46% | 25.05% | 20.37% | 10.64% | 4.44% | 0.88% | 0.41% | 0.29% | 0.44% |
| Walker | 55.11% | 20.37% | 10.84% | 8.97% | 2.37% | 1.17% | 0.46% | 0.32% | 0.40% |
| Washington | 53.78% | 21.82% | 15.31% | 6.43% | 1.14% | 0.85% | N/A | N/A | 0.68% |
| Wilcox | 54.36% | 21.59% | 12.12% | 8.33% | 2.27% | N/A | 0.57% | 0.38% | 0.38% |
| Winston | 56.12% | 18.01% | 11.85% | 9.02% | 2.73% | 0.90% | 0.45% | 0.37% | 0.54% |
| TOTAL | 43.42% | 21.09% | 18.66% | 10.24% | 4.43% | 0.92% | 0.46% | 0.30% | 0.48% |
| [15] | |||||||||
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won all 7 congressional districts.[16]
| District | Trump | Cruz | Rubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 46% | 19% | 19% |
| 2nd | 46% | 21% | 15% |
| 3rd | 44% | 21% | 16% |
| 4th | 49% | 19% | 16% |
| 5th | 40% | 20% | 22% |
| 6th | 37% | 25% | 22% |
| 7th | 43% | 23% | 18% |
Analysis
[edit]According to Pew Research, Alabama's Republican electorate has the second-highest proportion of white Evangelicals of any Super Tuesday state, at 63% of Republican voters.[17]
Donald Trump won the Alabama primary in a landslide due to support from Evangelical primary voters. Trump carried 43% of Evangelicals compared to 22% for Ted Cruz, according to exit polls by Edison Research.[18] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.[19]
References
[edit]- ^ Cox, Amanda; Katz, Josh; Quealy, Kevin (March 1, 2016). "Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
- ^ Stokols, Eli. "Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Trump". POLITICO. Retrieved May 6, 2019.
- ^ Diamond, Jeremy (February 29, 2016). "Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Donald Trump". CNN. Retrieved September 9, 2023.
- ^ RealClearPolitics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Primary results
- ^ "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday". SurveyMonkey. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
- ^ "ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA: TRUMP LEADS IN BOTH CLINTON LEADS IN AL, SANDERS IN OK" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
- ^ "Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. Retrieved February 27, 2016.
- ^ "Poll shows Trump and Cruz in lead in Alabama GOP primary race". AL.com. Retrieved January 23, 2016.
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ News-5/Strategy Research Archived August 13, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage
- ^ Cygnal
- ^ Source
- ^ "Certification of Results" (PDF). www.sos.alabama.com. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
- ^ Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
- ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
- ^ Maxwell, Angie (December 30, 2020). "Why Trump Became a 'Confederate' President". The Forum. 18 (4): 493–529. doi:10.1515/for-2020-2107. ISSN 1540-8884.