Wikipedia

Russian Kyiv convoy

The Russian Kyiv convoy was a large column of Russian military vehicles stretching some 64 kilometres (40 mi) in Kyiv Oblast from Prybirsk [uk] to Hostomel via Ivankiv[1] involved in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has been noted for initially threatening Kyiv, but then halting due to unclear reasons. Commentators have suggested that the large number of soldiers and vehicles may have had issues with fuel and food shortages, and may have also been delayed by attacks from the Ukrainian military.[2][3][4]

Approximate location of the Russian Kyiv convoy according to The Economist.
One BM-21 Grad Russian military vehicle, similar to the type used in the Kyiv convoy

On 2 April 2022 the whole of Kyiv Oblast, where the column was deployed, was declared free of Russian troops by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense after Russian troops had left the area.[5] Three days before, the United States Department of Defense stated that the convoy had "never really accomplished their mission."[6] On 4 March 2022 The Economist declared that the slow pace and the seemingly disorganised military formation was representative of Russia's problems in the war in general.[7]

Background

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Three day war plan

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Russia had reportedly hoped to take Kyiv rapidly and remove the Ukrainian government, allowing a pro-Russian government to be installed.[8][9] Russia positioned a large force in Belarus, which crossed the border and invaded the north of Ukraine, while other forces attacked from the east of Ukraine (occupied territories of Donbass) and Crimea in the south.[10]

After the invasion's start, Ukrainian and Western analysts tentatively assessed that Putin seemed to have assumed the Russian Armed Forces would be capable of capturing the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv within days, eventually leading to the commonly reached conclusion that "taking Kyiv in three days" had been the original objective or expectation of the invasion.[11][12][13] The planned "three day" capture of Kyiv was further reinforced on 2 March, when the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) repeated the claim following its release of a video showing a captured Russian soldier claiming his unit was sent into Ukraine with food supplies for only three days.[14]

Observations

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A Russian convoy during the Kyiv offensive in March 2022

Movements

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Maxar Technologies first spotted the Kyiv convoy in satellite images on Monday 28 February 2022.[15] The column of vehicles crossed into Ukraine from Belarus and moved south through Prybirsk, and then Ivankiv.[16] The convoy was apparently heading towards Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, as part of preparation for the projected Battle of Kyiv,[9] presumably with the aim of besieging and threatening Kyiv.[17] However, according to a 7 March 2022 intelligence update from the UK Defence Ministry, "The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30km from the centre of the city having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion."[3] Time reported that by 1 March, it was 25 kilometres (16 mi) from the centre of the city,[18] and it was then reported as stalling between 25 and 30 kilometres outside Kyiv.[16][19]

Composition and size

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On 2 March, the convoy was estimated to have held up to 15,000 troops.[16] The formation itself was made up of a variety of military vehicles, which satellite footage shows vehicles parked three abreast across wider sections of the road.[17] The convoy has been noted for its size, stretching about 65 kilometres (40 mi).[20] Satellite photos of the convoy indicate the column is composed of Russian supply trucks, troops, weapons,[21] and artillery.[22] Reuters revised the size of the convoy, estimating it to be larger than previously considered, at 64 kilometres (40 mi) long,[10] with The Independent estimating that it had grown to 64 kilometres (40 mi) long by 1 March, from its initial size estimate of 27 kilometres (17 mi).[23]

Air cover

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The convoy was protected by mobile anti-aircraft systems.[20] It is not known how effective these were, because elsewhere, Ukrainian Baykar Bayraktar TB2 drones had successfully attacked and "destroyed three [Russian] SAM missile systems and four 152mm artillery pieces, along with more than 10 trucks and several tanks" by 1 March.[24][25]: 20:49  The effectiveness of the Turkish-manufactured TB2 drones has been partly attributed to the Russian failure to achieve air supremacy in the opening phase of the war,[24] as well as poor Russian coordination and communications.[25]: 20:53  Ukrainian commanders were therefore considering using them against the convoy, but they had relatively few deployable TB2 drones, few military personnel were trained to operate them effectively, and Russian forces might be able to track them and shoot them down via their radio emissions.[24] Moreover, by 3 March, aviation researcher Justin Bronk stated that Russian forces appeared to have moved more air defence systems forward, including around the column.[25]: 21:40  Bronk argued that the convoy had thus become 'a very, very difficult target for the Ukrainian Air Force', because it was within reach of the S-400 missile systems along the Belarusian–Ukrainian border, excluding almost any conventional crewed aircraft attacks on the convoy (except perhaps very low-level flying, visual-targeting operations).[25]: 21:46 

Stall

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A Russian armored column in the Kyiv region, 7 March 2022

The convoy stalled eight days into the war, at approximately 30 kilometers (19 mi) from the center of the city of Kyiv; as of 7 March 2022, according to U.S. defense officials, the column had not moved at all for a few days.[26]

Reasons for malfunction

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There has been much discussion about why the convoy stalled. The UK Defence Ministry noted that by 7 March, it had been "delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days."[3]

  • Fuel and food shortages: Much commentary theorises that the convoy stalled due to fuel and food shortages.[3][27] In the wider conflict, fuel and supply issues have been apparent, with trucks and vehicles running out of fuel, leading to them being abandoned.[2] In some cases, Russian soldiers asked local Ukrainians for food or fuel for their vehicles.[28]
  • Weather, terrain, and congestion: Other media suggests that vehicles became stuck in mud, triggering traffic jams.[21] There have been a number of examples of Russian vehicles being unable to travel across muddy or boggy terrain. In this case, the terrain appears not to have frozen solid due to the mild winter that year. Images have been widely published on social media of heavy-tracked vehicles that Russian soldiers abandoned after they became trapped in the mud.[19] This issue was particularly notable in northern Ukraine, made worse as the Rasputitsa, the seasonal thaw during springtime, takes hold in more areas.[19]
  • Ukrainian attacks: Others have suggested that the convoy stalled as a result of attacks by the Ukrainian military, though little verified information has been published about this. It has been suggested that the column was attacked by artillery, Turkish-made drones, or ground ambushes.[2][3][7] On 28 March, it was reported that the convoy had been stopped by Ukrainian drone attacks.[4]
  • Maintenance: Poor vehicle maintenance may have contributed to the convoy's failure.[2][28][29] Trent Telenko, previously a Pentagon staff specialist and military history writer, and Karl Ruth, government advisor and economist, both supported the maintenance theory, with Telenko also noting that the Russian army "simply cannot risk them off-road during the [mud season]."[30]
  • Waiting: Other commentary theorised that the convoy was simply waiting to set up a forward base of operations.[31][32]
  • Overall bad planning and disorganisation: Janes Information Services theorised that overall Russian unpreparedness for the invasion of Ukraine, tied with the fact that Russia has not operated at this scale since WW2, has resulted in communications problems, and different units not being able to work together, resulting in the stall and apparent disorganisation of the armoured column.[33]

Strategic analysis

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Commentary discussing the column soon after its appearance assumed it was originally a column that would enter Ukraine, move south to Kyiv, and then encircle it with a siege.[34]

On 3 March 2022, CNN cited former Finnish defense intelligence expert Martti Kari in saying that, strategically, the stalled column presented two main threats to its ongoing campaign. Firstly that the column, now stalled, could be an easy target, suffering attacks that may eventually destroy it. Secondly the stalled column, as the situation got worse for those within it, would cause morale problems clearly not just for those in the column, but other Russian troops that heard of its plight.[3]

Some commentary has indicated that the troops in the convoy contained many supply trucks, and the soldiers in the convoy survived by eating the supplies in the trucks, which the convoy had intended to deliver to other units.[35] Some have seen its plodding pace and logistical issues as emblematic of Russia's efforts in the war in general.[7]

The column was either anticipated to form part of a planned siege of Kyiv, with the vehicles and troops fanning out to take up positions,[36] serve as a supply convoy to replenish food and ammunition to troops already engaged in the area, or set up a forward base of operations for attacks on Kyiv.[31][32]

Ukrainian attacks

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"Attack the first" method

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The ABC reported on 3 March that ground attacks with anti-tank weapons had destroyed numerous vehicles. It noted that the attacking forces had deliberately attacked the start of the column, destroying vehicles and creating ad-hoc roadblocks, with the following vehicles unable to pass.[34] On 11 March, a senior U.S. defense official stated that Ukrainian forces had made several attacks on the convoy with ground fire, such as shoulder-fired FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles delivered by Western countries.[34] Ukrainian units have set up various obstacles and roadblocks in its anticipated path, including "parking trams, buses and large vehicles".[37]

Ukrainian snipers engaged troops from their position and killed individual Russian soldiers.[19] High-level Russian officials at the convoy were killed by Ukrainian snipers. On 3 March, Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District, was killed by Ukrainian sniper fire when he ventured to the front of the stalled convoy. At that point, he was the highest-ranking Russian official killed.[19]

Ukrainian Aerorozvidka group also assisted with their own-built drones, some capable of dropping up to 1.5 kg bombs and firing rocket-propelled anti-tank grenades.[38]

Redeployment and retreat

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By 11 March 2022, some elements had broken off and deployed into firing positions. While the bulk of the convoy remained on the road, some parts, including artillery, had left the main column and started taking up positions near Hostomel.[39] Other sections took up positions in Lubyanka, and nearby forests.[40] On 16 March, the US Department of Defense (DoD) said that the Russian convoy north of Kyiv was still stuck in place, and had not progressed – however by 31 March the DoD stated they could not confirm the column still existed and noted that ultimately “…[t]hey never really accomplished their mission."[6]

In a report publishing in December 2022, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine indicated that despite elaborate planning, Ukrainian intelligence sources showed that "Russian military units involved in the planned invasion were only supplied with food, ammunition, and fuel for three days, indicating that Russia may have seriously underestimated the situation."[41] On 2 April 2022, the whole of Kyiv Oblast, where the military column was deployed, was declared free of invaders by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense after Russian troops had left the area.[5]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Vladimir Putin is pushing Russia into the past". The Economist. 12 March 2022.
  2. ^ a b c d "Ukraine: Why has Russia's 64km convoy near Kyiv stopped moving?". BBC News. 3 March 2022. Archived from the original on 4 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  3. ^ a b c d e f McGee, Luke (3 March 2022). "Here's what we know about the 40-mile-long Russian convoy outside Ukraine's capital". CNN. Archived from the original on 8 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  4. ^ a b "The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv". the Guardian. 28 March 2022. Retrieved 31 March 2022.
  5. ^ a b Ukraine ‘retakes whole Kyiv region’ as Russia looks east, aljazeera.com (3 April 2022)
  6. ^ a b "Russian Troops Bogged Down in Face of Stiff Ukraine Resistance, Says DOD Official". U.S. Department of Defense. Retrieved 17 March 2022.
    "Not clear Russian convoy to Kyiv exists anymore, Pentagon says". Reuters. 31 March 2022. Retrieved 1 April 2022.
  7. ^ a b c "Why a huge Russian convoy remains stalled north of Kyiv". The Economist. 4 March 2022. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  8. ^ Zoya Sheftalovich (26 February 2022). "Putin's miscalculation". Politico. Archived from the original on 10 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Russian military convoy near Ukraine's Kyiv makes no progress, probably stuck in mud or out of fuel: Report". India Today. 7 March 2022. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  10. ^ a b "Russian military convoy north of Kyiv stretches for 40 miles -Maxar". Reuters. 2 March 2022. Archived from the original on 1 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  11. ^ Sheftalovich, Zoya (26 February 2022). "Putin's miscalculation". Politico. Archived from the original on 10 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  12. ^ AFP (8 March 2022). "Five reasons why Ukraine has been able to stall Russian advance". France 24. Retrieved 21 December 2022.
  13. ^ Gabuev, Alexander (23 September 2022). "Putin has once again overplayed his hand in Ukraine". Financial Times. Archived from the original on 23 September 2022. Retrieved 21 December 2022. Putin's original plan — to take Kyiv in three days — was thwarted by the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians and by western support for Kyiv. Now we are seeing plan B, formed in response to developments on the ground. Alt URL
  14. ^ Copp, Tara (2 March 2022). "'The Convoy Is Stalled': Logistics Failures Slow Russian Advance, Pentagon Says". Defense One. Archived from the original on 2 March 2022. Retrieved 21 December 2022. On Wednesday, Ukraine's security service posted a video of a captured Russian soldier who says he and his unit were sent across the border with only three days' food. "Putin expected to capture Ukraine in three days," Ukraine's security service wrote above the video, which could not be independently verified. "By the order of the top Russian leadership, the phones and documents were taken from the fire brigades, removed food and water for three days and sent to war with Ukraine," the agency said, according to the English translation of the post.
  15. ^ "A 64-kilometre-long Russian military convoy is approaching Kyiv. Here's what we know so far". ABC News. 2 March 2022. Archived from the original on 15 March 2022. Retrieved 16 March 2022.
  16. ^ a b c "What we know about 64km-long Russian convoy headed for Kyiv". www.9news.com.au. 2 March 2022. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  17. ^ a b Peter Beaumont (1 March 2022). "Vast Russian military convoy may be harbinger of a siege of Kyiv". the Guardian. Archived from the original on 6 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  18. ^ "Russia's 40-Mile Long Tank Convoy Closes In on Kyiv as Bombing Intensifies in Kharkiv". Time. Archived from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  19. ^ a b c d e "Why is the 64-kilometre Russian convoy not moving towards Kyiv?". AS.com. 7 March 2022. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  20. ^ a b "Is stuck convoy in Ukraine a setback for Russia?". www.9news.com.au. 4 March 2022. Archived from the original on 6 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  21. ^ a b "Russia's 64km convoy has made 'little discernible progress' towards Kyiv, UK intelligence says". ABC News. 4 March 2022. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  22. ^ Cooper, Tom Sables Tim (4 March 2022). "What's going on with Russia's convoy outside Kyiv?". Forces Network. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  23. ^ "Ukraine: 40 mile-long Russian convoy on way to Kyiv twice as long as previously known". The Independent. 1 March 2022. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  24. ^ a b c Thomas Harding (1 March 2022). "Ukraine's drone strikes a threat to Russia's advancing forces". The National. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022. The unmanned aircraft have destroyed three SAM missile systems and four 152mm artillery pieces, along with more than 10 trucks and several tanks
  25. ^ a b c d Justin Bronk (Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute) (3 March 2022). "Reasons for Failure? Russian Air Force in Ukraine". Military Aviation History. Archived from the original on 10 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  26. ^ "Russia's 40-Mile Convoy Headed To Kyiv "Continues To Be Stalled": US". NDTV. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  27. ^ "UK claims Russian convoy near Kyiv 'suffering continued losses'". The Independent. 10 March 2022. Archived from the original on 10 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  28. ^ a b Roper, Matt; Hughes, Lorna (6 March 2022). "Russian soldiers run out of fuel and knock on village doors for food". Hull Live. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  29. ^ Tegler, Eric. "Have Flat Tires And Ukraine's Mud Season Stalled The Russian Column Outside Kyiv?". Forbes. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022.
  30. ^ "How cheap Chinese tires might explain Russia's 'stalled' 40-mile-long military convoy in Ukraine". news.yahoo.com. 3 March 2022. Archived from the original on 8 March 2022. Retrieved 8 March 2022.
  31. ^ a b Ukraine War: The 40 mile Convoy is Worse Than You Think, archived from the original on 8 March 2022, retrieved 8 March 2022
  32. ^ a b O'Grady, Siobhán; Demirjian, Karoun (9 March 2022). "Is the Russian convoy outside Kyiv stuck or readying for final attack?". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 9 March 2022.
  33. ^ "Ukraine conflict: Russian military adapts command-and-control for Ukraine operations". Janes. Archived from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  34. ^ a b c "Huge Russian convoy outside Kyiv disperses after reports of food, fuel shortages". ABC News. 11 March 2022. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  35. ^ "12ft |". 12ft.io. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 9 March 2022.
  36. ^ "Ukraine conflict: Dread in Kyiv as huge Russian convoy advances". BBC News. 1 March 2022. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  37. ^ "How Kyiv locals plan to stop enormous Russian convoy". www.9news.com.au. 9 March 2022. Archived from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  38. ^ "The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv". the Guardian. 28 March 2022. Retrieved 30 March 2022.
  39. ^ "Russian convoy outside Kyiv has redeployed into firing positions, satellite photos show". Global News. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  40. ^ "Russian military convoy near Kyiv 'dispersed, re-deployed'". Al-Jazeera. Archived from the original on 11 March 2022. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  41. ^ The Kyiv Independent news desk (19 December 2022). "Ukrainian intelligence: Putin postponed Ukraine invasion date three times". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 21 December 2022.
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