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Great article but even this article contains some minor nitpicky inaccuracies in modeling churn.

The Lomax distribution (sometimes described as the gamma-exponential) would only be appropriate if we're modeling a continuous time process.

For a contractual product with discrete time intervals (aka monthly contract), it would be more accurate to use a geometric rather than exponential model such as the Beta-Geometric.




Bingo! The classic work on this is from Fader and Hardie:

https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04...

A friend and I made an implementation in Python a while back:

https://github.com/chrisclark/retentionizer


Super glad to find this! Have you also seen the lifetimes library? https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/lifetimes




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