Talk:Hurricane Rafael

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Damage in Colombia

I found a source that may have impacts in Colombia associated with Rafael. The dates add up and the Central American Gyre is not mentioned at all. The region would also make sense. I was hesitant to add it though, so I want to see what others think. Here's the link: Santa Marta in emergency due to rains: avalanche flooded part of the city, buried vehicles and left several people injured - Infobae Shmego(talk) 17:40, 5 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Santa Marta seems quite far away from Panama so I am not too sure. ✶Qux yz ✶ 00:24, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

On 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, it says Rafael impacted Columbia, tho Joseph Ca98 (talk) 00:34, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

~~The storm may have had minimal ipacts in Columbia Rizzler97628 (talk) 00:39, 6 November 2024 (UTC)~~[reply]

The seasonal article is not the authority of listing impacts. ✶Qux yz ✶ 01:16, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

That's what I was thinking, but the storm also impacted Jamaica rather early. I think we should add it for now. Pinging @Drdpw for his opinion. Shmego2 (talk) 00:42, 6 November 2024 (UTC) (Shmego's alt)[reply]

I will defer to others, it may be precursor-Rafael, or may be the local media assuming it to be, don’t know. Drdpw (talk) 01:31, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The article doesn't directly state that it was Rafael, though. It attributes it to downpours in the short term and deforestation in the long term. ✶Qux yz ✶ 01:35, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think we could include it. Quxyz, the article would not mention that it was Rafael because Rafael has not formed then. It would have been its precursor which also affected Panama. Shmego2 (talk) 01:43, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I guess I am ok with it. Something just feels unsatisfying. My biggest concern is mostly violating WP:OR but in the short term, I'll allow it to be added. ✶Qux yz ✶ 01:46, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, I agree, but I think we may need a couple more hours until we start rapidly updating the article. We could get Columbia's impact down, and then wait for the next intensification. I do want @Hurricanehink's opinion though. Joseph Ca98 (talk) 00:48, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

On the side of thoroughness, keep the information about the precursor for now, pending additional verification, but if the TCR in the future doesn't mention the precursor system, then it should get removed. This is why we could use yearly flood articles. I don't want the info removed from Wiki, but I don't think those floods should have their own article. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 18:57, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Requested move 6 November 2024

The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

The result of the move request was: move to Hurricane Rafael. (non-admin closure) INeedSupport ^:3 18:53, 16 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Hurricane Rafael (2024) → Hurricane Rafael – This Rafael has already quintupled (septupled with missings) the deaths attributed to 2012 and is likely to trump it in damages too after it landfalls in Cuba and the United States. ✶Qux yz ✶ 01:45, 6 November 2024 (UTC) — Relisting. Raladic (talk) 21:25, 14 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support - per nom Shmego2 (talk) 01:45, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Extremely Strong Support - yeah, don't think I need to explain as it is already self-explanatory with the death toll as of 0200 utc 11/6 Iseriously (talk) 01:58, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support - per nom, deaths not high. Ampil ^{(Ταικ • Cοnτribυτιοns)} 02:14, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait until Rafael impacts Cuba. Those deaths are due to the precursor disturbance, not Rafael itself. Tavantius (talk) 02:16, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

By tomorrow afternoon, Rafael would have made landfall in Cuba. I doubt that this discussion will close before then. ✶Qux yz ✶ 02:28, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

• Support It just strengthened to a Category 1 Hurricane, it seems good now to rename it Hurricane Rafael. Deuxde (talk) 02:35, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Oppose for now. Having more deaths does not necessarily make it more notable. Wait until the amount of coverage is definitively known to be more than other Rafael's. WP:PRIMARYTOPIC is the governing policy ehre.--Jasper Deng (talk) 03:02, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait for now. It's way too early to warrant a move at this moment. Stareiglace (talk) 04:09, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Oppose, for now – it is too soon to say whether Rafael 2024 rates WP:PRIMARYTOPIC distinction, and too much is unknown about the connection between the Panama–Colombia flooding deaths and proto-Rafael. Drdpw (talk) 04:29, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Struck-through by me; see my support statement below. Drdpw (talk) 21:10, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait - way too early to move the article as there are still more countries that Rafael has not impacted yet. Haruka Amaranth 05:50, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait - if Rafael did extreme damages in Cuba or possibly US then we should change this anyway Crominance (talk) 09:31, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait - It does appear to be strengthening, but it's too soon to call. EF⁵ 13:37, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait - Give it like two days or by the time its back down below a hurricane, then it should be considered. ImAdhafera (talk) 15:11, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support: NHC now has it becoming a major at Cuba landfall, and Rafael could be significant for Cuba. AwesomeAndEpicGamer (talk) 15:24, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Oppose for now – as per the replies above, It's still too early to say whether its primary topic or not, It hasn't impacted Cuba. SomeoneWiki04 (talk) 15:33, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Strong support, Rafael is already at Category 3 major hurricane status. 🍋 🍋(talk!) 18:14, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

@LemonJuiceIsSour: Category 3 is hardly remarkable and has no bearing on WP:PRIMARYTOPIC.--Jasper Deng (talk) 18:32, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I mean when the competitor is a Category 1, it certainly has some weight that it is landfalling as a major hurricane. But I would be careful citing that as evidence as PRIMARY though as it would be borderline C3 if it does landfall as one. ✶Qux yz ✶ 20:07, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait. Will likely change to support later. Wildfireupdateman (talk) 18:19, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait. I support the move; however, this system is still active so it'll have to wait. tai (he/him) (talk) 21:28, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

CHanged to support I still support the move since Rafael dissipated sometime ago, so it is now fair to move the article. tai (he/him) (talk) 23:56, 13 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait until it passes through Cuba. Since it is a major hurricane, impacts will likely be major and that could support a name change. Could also cause some impacts to the Florida Keys as well, so wait until Rafael has passed through before making a decision. Thehurricaneman (talk) 21:54, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Change to Support due to the fact that this was a November major hurricane, caused a nationwide power outage in Cuba, and even just it's precursor killed several people. Thehurricaneman (talk) 13:36, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait a few days, then move it BombCraft8 ^{(talk) (contributions)} 23:12, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Change to Support enough time has passed now we can move it BombCraft8 ^{(talk) (contributions)} 18:48, 8 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I support! CyclonicStormYutu (talk) 00:25, 7 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Would you be able to provide a reason for your support? Shmego2 (talk) 00:45, 7 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with Shmego2 here. You should always give a reason for your support. 🍋 🍋(talk!) 00:50, 7 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait per above. --_ZZ^Z 'S 01:50, 7 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wait It has already made landfall in Cuba, but the damages will take a while to be accounted for. It's not a C5 or C4 landfall for it to be urgently changed right away Bugnawfang (talk) 14:25, 7 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support: I don't think meteorological records per se (i.e. longevity, strength with respect to when it formed) warrant the removal of year names, but Rafael made landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane and caused a nationwide blackout, so the damage is at least substantial (it's not WP:CRYSTAL, as its landfall close to Havana would guarantee some damage, more so as it's a category 3), if not warranting for retirement. See Grace's 1991 and 2021 incarnations; notice that the latter does not have a year indicator, but Grace was not retired following the 2021 season. Bugnawfang (talk) 15:34, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support – admittedly, this might be a bit early. However, Rafael has just become one of only two recorded instances of a major hurricane in the Gulf in November, with the only other storm managing to achieve this being Hurricane Kate (1985)—this is a pretty impressive, even if somewhat obscure, meteorological achievement. Additionally, it's hard to see how Rafael 2024 would have comparable coverage to Rafael 2012, which was a minimally-impacting and almost entirely OTS hurricane. Rafael 2024 has already garnered some media attention for previously threatening the U.S. Gulf Coast ([1][2][3]), its landfall and impacts on Cuba ([4][5][6][7][8]), and now its unusual status as a meandering hurricane in the Gulf ([9][10][11]). Ark Hyena (it/its) 14:10, 8 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support – Could it still be early? Maybe. But Rafael 2024 is significantly more notable now than the 2012 variant. As mentioned above, Rafael is now only the second-ever November major hurricane to exist at that intensity in the Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, though we are still awaiting damages from Cuba, it is reported that Rafael caused a nationwide blackout. While this could be as a result of prior blackouts before, I wouldn't be surprised if damages turn out to be worse than expected. Rafael's forecasted track is also going to be unusual with the current cone showing a Cyclonic loop before making it into the Bay of Campeche. It is extremely rare for a hurricane, let alone a major hurricane, to enter the Gulf of Mexico and then not make landfall anywhere. All in all, I do think Rafael has a lot of reasoning to have the year removed. VantaWiki (talk) 16:59, 8 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support I concur with ArkHyena and VantaWiki. Rafael 2024 has gained much more media coverage and established itself as the WP:PRIMARYTOPIC by making landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane and causing damage across multiple nations, much more than the obscure 2012 incarnation of the storm name. It isn't too early if the storm has already clearly become the primary topic. Jay Tee⛈️ 17:18, 8 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Highly Support - Rafael was a major hurricane in November, which is already rare, and also did at least 8 deaths and likely millions if not billions of dollars in damage. Rafael has only been used one other time, and that first Rafael was much less significant. I think we should go with “Hurricane Rafael” without the “(2024)” part until one is more significant. JAFactsDude (talk) 05:06, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Oppose for the following reasons:

- The hurricane's death toll is not extensive, akin to that of Hurricane Oscar (2024)

- Notable records by a storm, such as being the strongest November hurricane, is no reason to make it primary. Hurricane Kate (1985) broke the same records and was neither retired nor made primary. Likewise, Hurricane Bonnie (2022) also had a peculiar meteorological history and crossed to the Pacific, and Hurricane Kirk (2024) made landfall on Europe, both of which are not primary.

- A Hurricane's year should only be dropped if the name faces retirement due to extreme damages and extensive death tolls. Cnscrptr (talk) 13:58, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

thats not how it works here, We decide if a tropical cyclone is primary topic or not based if it's the most notable/has the most coverage compared to other storms with the same name, so it doesn't have to wait to get retired first or has the probability to get retired. SomeoneWiki04 (talk) 21:59, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with you, SomeoneWiki04. 🍋 🍋(talk!) 22:15, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Then why do Hurricane Bonnie (2022) and Hurricane Kirk (2024) still have the year? Cnscrptr (talk) 14:50, 12 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Atlantic-Pacific crossover storms are not particularly rare, with 21 on record and two happening in 2022 alone. Kirk is also not really exceptional in any way; many long-tracked hurricanes eventually pass over Europe as extratropical cyclones, and Kirk did not cause any exceptional damage as one.

Even if both were as meteorologically significant as Rafael '24, Bonnie 2022 would fail PRIMARYTOPIC due to Hurricane Bonnie (1998) causing comparable damage and receiving comparable news coverage. Ark Hyena (it/its) 15:00, 12 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

True. 🍋 🍋(talk!) 17:50, 12 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Change to Support. Hurricane Rafael has become a notable storm and I'm almost certain most people looking up a storm with this name have this in mind. Cnscrptr (talk) 14:09, 16 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Support per WP:PRIMARYTOPIC. Rafael 2024 has far surpassed the only previous (2012) Hurricane Rafael in terms of media coverage, and overall notability, on account of its specific meteorological history and impacts. Also, the notability of this Hurricane Raphael will remain significantly greater than that of the earlier one going forward (even if later eclipsed by another down the road). Drdpw (talk) 21:10, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Oppose – There is another Rafael in 2012 with its own article Hurricane Rafael (2012). There's no reason why this 2024 storm should be considered any differently. Truthanado (talk) 13:24, 13 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Truthanado, several editors have offered reasons for why Rafael '24 may meet the definition of primary topic (should be considered differently from Rafael '12). Drdpw (talk) 14:29, 13 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The Rafael in 2024 has more notability and more news coverage than the one in 2012. 🍋 🍋(talk!) 13:56, 13 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Saying that this storm shouldn't be considered different would be blatantly false. More coverage, damage, and deaths. Also the tied strongest is the Gulf during November. Shmego2 (talk) 21:58, 13 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

They're all right. Rafael of 2024 is one of the most unusual storms in the basin as a whole for these reasons:

- Tied as strongest Gulf storm in November

- Only the ninth Gulf storm to not make landfall as at least a (sub)tropical depression

- Far more coverage, and far stronger/more intense than the 2012 namesake

- Precursor disturbance killed at least 5 people in Panama and/or Costa Rica

- One of the northernmost major hurricane landfalls in November

- Major hurricanes in November are rare in and of themselves, although we all feel those phenomena are getting more common, especially after Eta and Iota in 2020

- One of the most unpredictable cones of uncertainty in the history of the NHC (One day, it was supposed to hit Louisiana. The next day, it was poised for the Bay of Campeche)

And it could be a primary topic especially after Sara takes aim at several countries in the next week, especially after Sara was the name chosen to replace Sandy. Iseriously (talk) 01:24, 14 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

And that Sara this year is the first time Sara will be ever used, after it NOT being used in 2018 due to inactivity. 🍋 🍋(talk!) 01:39, 14 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Sara is absolutely irrelevant to this discussion. Drdpw (talk) 01:55, 14 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Neutral for now – as I don’t appear to see anything that would make this a primary topic. Hurricane Clyde 🌀^{my talk page!} 18:27, 14 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

Cayman Compass URLs

The Cayman Compass is reusing URLs for separate news stories. Archive URLs should probably be looked into. ✶Qux yz ✶ 14:48, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I believe that CBS also did this with citations 57 and 67. ✶Qux yz ✶ 16:52, 10 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Jamaica deaths

/Not sure about this, but this article by the Jamaica Observer talks about two bodies washed up in Saint Catherine Parish. Should they be mentioned? Tavantius (talk) 21:49, 7 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

They are likely the two people noted in the article as missing. Drdpw (talk) 21:55, 7 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Deaths in Panama

Why is there mention of 5 death in Panama when the two references are titled "4 deaths"? Pierre cb (talk) 14:10, 11 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]